Last night’s Tennessee special election gave Democrats and Republicans something to worry about.

Their performance suggests that much bigger wins could be ahead.

Republican Matt Van Epps won a special election on Tuesday to represent Tennessee's 7th Congressional District.

The race has been viewed as a bellwether for the 2026 midterm elections, and the margin of Republican victory will be closely analysed.

Republican candidates face the problem that President Trump alone gets out the vote that they need. And he alone gets out the vote that Democrats need, too.

President Donald Trump won the district by 22 points in 2024.

While Trump celebrated Behn‘s election win, some conservatives urged the Republican Party to shift their focus to winning elections next year. Robby Starbuck, a conservative social media activist, said on X that Republicans should have won the election by a larger margin.

The race to replace retired Rep. Mark Green is close, and both parties have taken notice.

Republican Matt Van Epps won the Tennessee 7th Congressional special election, but Aftyn Behn's overperformance has Democrats celebrating, too, and sets up an affordability focus in the 2026 midterms.